Luck and timing

Thoughts on "moving the needle"

A few weeks ago, social media was abuzz with discussions of what authors can do to “move the needle” when it comes to sales of their books. This is a tale as old as time, and one that seems to crop up on social every few years.

This time, the discussion popped up in a slightly round-about way. A hyped book (Silver Elite) released to great sales, and because it was written by a bestselling author using a pen name with their actual identity unknown and their social media presence nearly nonexistent, many folks pointed to the title as proof that if a pub wants to make a book perform, they can and will. Some went on to warn that nothing an author does on their own can truly move the needle.

From there, some well-meaning folks chimed in saying they actually have seen a boost in sales given their efforts, and here’s what they did to see that needle jump. Others cautioned that those same efforts won’t work for others for x, y, or z reasons.

I’m being a bit vague here, and it’s because the details (the things that worked for some authors and the reasons they might not work for others) don’t matter.

The truth is that yes, a publisher getting behind a book can make it perform… or not. An author hustling to promote their book can increase sales… or not.

You’ve likely heard me say before that good luck and timing factor into selling a book to a publisher. Well guess what? You also need good luck and timing for a book to move copies.

If getting tons of preorders was as simple as posting consistently on social media, a lot more books would be bestsellers. If making a book break out was as simple as a pub backing it, every book they backed would blow up. But this isn’t the case; every lead title does not succeed.¹

So what actually makes a book perform? Publisher backing definitely helps the odds. I will be the first to admit this. But what is the book’s age category? What about genre and tropes? Are those things hot right now or oversaturated? Is the idea commercial and big concept, or quieter and more niche? Will the algorithms work in the book’s favor? Are the right hashtags being used? Is word of mouth being generated?

I could keep going, but I think you get the point. Some of these things are beyond anyone’s control and are instead the product of luck and timing. No matter how hard an author pushes/promotes/markets/advertises, certain factors are simply out of their hands.

I can hear some of you groaning. I groan occasionally at this, too. It’s incredibly frustrating to have no real control over your book’s performance. But it’s also freeing.

If some of the advice on how to move the needle overwhelmed you the other week, you have my permission to ignore it. Because here’s the thing: you could do exactly what one author did to “move the needle” for their book but get wildly different results for yours. You’re doing it at a different time, for starters (timing factor), and presumably your book is unique from theirs (e.g.: different age category, genre, tropes, pitch, etc), meaning it may or may not resonate with readers when you promote it (luck factor). Not to mention that not all writers have the same privileges, budgets, or reach.

Again, frustrating. But also? FREEING.

It doesn’t matter what you do! Your efforts might work, or they might not, because you don’t actually have control, and none of us can see the future.

That said, there is one thing you can control: the words you put on the page. ²

This is why my approach to book promotion the last few times around has been focused and narrow. I do things I enjoy on social (sharing teasers, for example) and don’t bother with the stuff I hate (like repetitive daily posts). I make a budget (based on my advance for the book and also the amount of effort I see the pub putting in) and stick to it when handling things like giveaways, mailings, and swag. I do enough promo so that if someone stumbles upon my instagram or newsletter, they can easily see that I have a new book coming out and know where to buy/order it if they’re interested. After that? I focus on writing the next thing, because that, I can control.

I know this might sound depressing, but I don’t look at it that way. After fifteen years in this field, I’ve truly made peace with how little control I have over the reception and performance of my books. This has been freeing for me—and I hope it can be for you, too.

If you still find the concept unsettling though, I’ll leave you with this:

The big takeaway here isn’t “nothing the author does can move the needle.” It’s instead: “There is no guarantee that what the author does will move the needle.”

Sometimes marketing and publicity efforts pay off. More likely, they won’t, simply because the luck/timing stars rarely align.

Once you accept that your book might not sell at the level you want, not even if you go All In, you begin to adjust your mindset, and with that, your strategy regarding marketing efforts. On the flip side, if you don’t accept your lack of control, you will keep trying “move the needle” and risk being perpetually disappointed if luck/timing doesn’t go your way.

Personally, I find publishing hard enough without putting extra pressure on myself. If I can’t control something, I’m not going to beat myself up about being unable to control said uncontrollable thing. Instead, I focus on writing my next book and making it the best I possibly can. Because if/when those luck and timing stars do align, I want my upcoming release to be an absolute banger. And you should too.

Until next time,

Erin Bowman is the critically acclaimed author of numerous books for children and teens, including the Taken Trilogy, Vengeance Road, Retribution Rails, the Edgar Award-nominated Contagion duology, The Girl and the Witch’s Garden, and Dustborn. A web designer turned author, Erin has always been invested in telling stories—both visually and with words. Erin lives in New Hampshire with her husband and children.

1. It stinks that many titles don’t get a chance at “lead title” treatment. But not all titles can be leads—this is just the nature of the business—and it’s important to remember that being a lead doesn’t guarantee huge sales numbers, just slightly better odds.

2. I am far from the first person to talk about this. You might also like taking a peek at these posts by Susan Dennard and Jodi Meadows, who both discuss what you can and can’t control in a writing career.